EPL Championship Sunday + MLS

Liverpool have finally lifted their first top flight title in 30 years but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing left to play on the final day in the Premier League. Five teams are fighting for European spots with four playing each other and three teams will fight for their lives at the bottom to avoid relegation, with only one eligible to prevail.

It’s always a fun betting matchday because of the implications and excitement that surround many of the fixtures so I’ve come up with as many picks as I can (14 of them!). Also included are MLS picks since the tournament has reached its knockout phase.

All-Time Record: 677-622-170
Last Two Seasons: 414-373-103 (+19.7 units)
This Season: 202-203-55 (+2.7 Units)
EPL MW 35 + MLS: 3-3-1 (+0.8 Units)

Premier League

Manchester United/Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals (-120) – These two teams have both been scoring lots of goals and conceding them over the last month. Although I don’t expect a barn-burner here with so much on the line, I do think 2.5 is a bit low. These teams will be desperate for three points as the winner makes the Champions League so I can see them completely going for it.

Wolves (+320) – This is strictly a value play. I think this match feels much more like a toss up than having Wolves at +320 to win. I’ll gladly take a stab at that price.

Wolves/Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals (-110) – Chelsea have only had one league match that has had less than three goals since the restart and I think once someone scores in this Champions/Europa League decider, the opposing team will throw everything they’ve got.

Watford +0.5 (-105) – I do not think Watford are the better team, but I do think they can make this a game with their club’s future hanging in the balance. A single point could keep them up against an Arsenal team who has nothing left to play for. Take the points.

Watford/Arsenal Over 3 (-100) – I don’t trust either of these defenses especially in a match where every goal for Watford could mean a step closer to safety. The over is set perfectly at 3 and I really don’t think there will be less goals than that. Perfect spot for a push/win.

Burnley (+130) – I was a little shocked to see Burnley at such a good price. They’ve been brilliant since the restart and have a shot to finish in 8th place if they do better than Sheffield. Plus, Brighton haven’t shown much to end the season, especially since they’ve been safe.

Aston Villa (+130) – It’s all or nothing for Villa at this point. Beating West Ham guarantees them safety as long as Watford don’t win by two more goals than them. I can see West Ham taking it a little easier as their holiday is around the corner as well.

Spurs -1 (-110) – This isn’t as much a pro-Spurs bet as it is an anti-Palace bet. Palace have been utterly atrocious since the restart and I’ll gladly fade them. Plus, Spurs do need a win and likely by a mulitple-goal margin.

Spurs/Palace Under 2.5 Goals (+105) – You might be wondering why I also picked the under when just a second ago I said Spurs should easily win and they need goals. Well, in true Jose Mourinho style, if a low-scoring win suits them, he will pack it in. This bet also acts as a fail-safe/hedge in case -1 doesn’t hit and Spurs just sit back with a lead.

Bournemouth/Everton Under 3 Goals (-115) – Bournemouth need a miracle. They need Watford and Villa to both lose and them to beat Everton here. I don’t see that happening and with the way Bournemouth have been scoring, I don’t see them putting in more than one here.

MLS

Philadelphia Union Pickem (+105) – The Union are currently the second most popular pick to win the MLS is Back tournament, yet they’ve been undervalued in every match so far. I chose the pickem because these matches can go into extra time and I want to ensure a push in that scenario. Take the U, #DOOP.

Toronto FC (+125) – NYCFC have yet to win a game in this tournament, have scored only two goals in three matches and Toronto have one of the best playmakers in the league in Pozuelo. I don’t see NYCFC competing here and +125 is too good to pass up.

Toronto FC/NYCFC Over 3 Goals (-105) – This plays into the TFC moneyline rationale. I think Toronto could push this over by themselves and in MLS, the over is never a bad bet.

LAFC (-105) – LAFC are by far the best team in MLS even without league MVP Carlos Vela in this tournament. Unlike other clubs who lost their star strikers/main production, LAFC have had no issues filling those gaps scoring 11 goals in their three matches so far. UPDATE: 3 UNITS AS OF 9:30 7/27

Thanks to everyone who has read during this wild European season. My betting season will run through to the Champions League Final with MLS bets in between so don’t worry, I’m not going anywhere. As always…

Stay kickin’ it. Peace.

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

Nico

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