Another good weekend puts me back in positive units for the season as we near its close. Let’s build on that momentum.
All-Time Record: 670-604-168
Last Two Seasons: 407-365-101 (+17.3 units)
This Season: 195-196-53 (+0.3 Units)
EPL MW 34 + MLS: 6-4 (+1.8 Units)
Burnley +0.5 (-105) – I had trouble picking this one but in the end I can’t ignore Burnley’s form and their upward trend. Their only loss was to City at the start of Project Restart and since they’ve gained 11 points from a possible 15 with draws against Chelsea and Sheffield. I’ll take the points.
Liverpool/Arsenal Over 3 (-110) – It’s hard to see how Liverpool are going to play week to week now, but I’m not in a position to fade them up against a team who is prone to so many errors at the back. Liverpool’s defense also only has one clean sheet in their last four games since winning the title so I’m expecting goals in this one.
Sheffield United +0.5 (-120) – Leicester have been pretty poor since the restart with only one win. Meanwhile, Sheffield have gone four straight without a loss with three wins against Chelsea, Wolves and Spurs as well as a draw against an in-form Burnley side. I’ll gladly take the points again.
Aston Villa/Everton Over 2.5 Goals (-115) – This is one of those bets that you see and immediately feel like you have to take. Villa have conceded the second most goals this season and Everton the sixth most, making this one a no-brainer.
Manchester United -1.5 (+105) – This feels like a trap game but I’m taking it regardless. Why would a red-hot Manchester United team (yes even after the Southampton draw) be only 1.5 point favorites against a Palace team who has lost five straight with a goal differential of -11? No idea, but I can’t fade them here.
Southampton (+130) – Why did I say to ignore the Southampton draw against United? Because Southampton have been one of the better teams since the restart and there’s not much buzz about them. Their only loss came to Arsenal when they arguably played better, they’ve beaten City 1-0 (only Wolves have had a better scoreline this season) and just drew United stopping their 18-match unbeaten run.
West Ham (+140) – I was wrong about West Ham, I’ll put my hand up. I had no faith in them to climb out of the relegation zone yet here they are. And here I am, picking them to beat Watford and all but secure their safety for next season. These are too good of odds for a team who needs three points while in good enough form.
Philadelphia Union (+135) 2 Units – The Union are a cohesive unit returning after a great season last year and a win earlier in this tournament against a solid NYCFC team. Miami are new and lost to a team nobody wants to lose to, Orlando. For accounting purposes:
Atlanta -1 (-120) – Like I said in my last blog, fade Cincinnati at all costs. This one was easy.
Stay kickin’ it. Peace.