Premier League Matchweek 31 Picks

The Premier League is back and has already filled the news with storylines. Manchester City are back to their dominant ways after dismantling Arsenal and Burnley, Arsenal have had two very disappointing results along with a few major injuries including GK Bernd Leno and Liverpool’s coronation has been delayed after a 0-0 draw at Goodison. Not to be forgotten of course is the entire league showing respect to the Black Lives Matters movements with patches, taking a knee before the match and with the movement’s name replacing the backs of their shirts.

All-Time Record: 652-581-165
Last Two Seasons: 389-344-98 (+19.9 units)
This Season: 177-175-50 (+3.0 Units)
EPL MW 30: 4-3 (+1.8 Units)

A solid week with my Southampton +175 raising my unit count higher than my average 4-3 weeks. This week we have a huge slate of matches and I have 9 picks for you so strap in.

Tuesday, June 23rd
1:00 pm EST

Brighton @ Leicester – Leicester’s return this Saturday was somewhat lackluster in a 1-1 draw to Watford. They’ll face a Brighton team who just stole a win against Arsenal, but my confidence level in them hasn’t really risen. They play a rough style with the intent of slowing down play which works against an Arsenal team that often has trouble building chances, but won’t work against Leicester who ranks third in big chances created and they’re great at build up play. Even with the juice here, Leicester feel like the safe play in a bounce back game. Leicester City (-150).

3:15 pm EST

West Ham @ Tottenham – I don’t have too much confidence in betting either of these teams right now so I’m going to side with the over. Both of these teams average over 2.5 total goals per match and their match back in November produced 5 goals. Yes, things have changes especially with Spurs since then, but West Ham are a team who hasn’t produced a clean sheet in the league in 10 matches. Spurs are in a similar boat with only two clean sheets in the league since early December (one was with a City red card). I’ll take the over. Over 2.5 Goals (-115).

Wednesday, June 24th
1:00 pm EST

Bournemouth @ Wolves – Bournemouth’s defense was shaky before the break and it continued into their match on Saturday. They’ve conceded an average of over 2 goals per game over their last 5 matches and it’s been a decent trend for them for a lot of the season. I think Wolves will score multiple here and I like the price on the over as well as the spread. Wolves -1 (+105) and Over 2.5 Goals (+105).

Everton @ Norwich – To be honest I hate betting on both of these teams. They’re both inconsistent, have been playing at a low level for a lot of the season and are both coming off of unconvincing results from the weekend (yes, Everton drew the best team in the league but it wasn’t very convincing). But the bottom line is that Norwich don’t belong in the same league as Everton and they are almost guaranteed to go down now. I’ll gladly take Everton against a motivation-less Championship side. Everton -0.5 (-105).

Aston Villa @ Newcastle – This one feels like a toss up to me and my gut wants to bet Villa, but I know that three points for them can be hard to come by. They played well enough against Chelsea but yet again can’t seem to figure out their defensive woes as they’ve conceded the most goals in the league so far. For Newcastle, I was fully convinced after their big win against Sheffield even if they were man up for half of the game. They responded well and their offense is beginning to click a bit. Newcastle -0.5 (+135).

Thursday, June 25th
1:00 pm EST

Arsenal @ Southampton – Poor Arsenal. The Gunners have a laundry list of injuries and suspensions in key areas including goalkeeper. Their run of form in their first two matches back has been pretty bad and I just can’t stomach betting on them. Southampton meanwhile put in a great performance even if it was against Norwich as three goals and a clean sheet are always impressive. This is a principle game, so I’ll be taking Southampton on the pickem. Southampton Pickem (-105).

Watford @ Burnley – Wooof Burnley got absolutely smoked on Monday and will now have to face a Watford team who held strong against a European candidate and quality team in Wolves. Adding to Burnley’s struggles, they’ve also caught the injury bug and could barely fill the bench against City on Monday. I’ll take Watford with this very generous price in a game where three points are almost a must for them. Watford (+150).

Manchester City @ Chelsea – In what should be the match with the highest quality, Man City will look to continue their wonderful start against a Chelsea team who is finally healthy. Chelsea didn’t start well against Villa and even went down 1-0, a worrying sign before you play a team in Manchester City who can and will punish you early. Even with Aguero’s new knee injury, City have by far the best depth in the league and with rotation players such as Foden beginning to shine, it’s hard to bet against a team like City right now. Manchester City -0.5 (-120).

That’s all for this week’s picks. Best of luck to all! Expect a podcast after these matches and before the weekend’s matches.

Stay kickin’ it. Peace.

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

Nico

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