Last week started well for me but quickly turned sour after I went 0-3-2 on the second day of MW24. I’m back with 11 picks this weekend though and I haven’t felt this confident in weeks so let’s rock and roll.
Last Two Seasons: 338-285-93 (+21.1 units)
This Season: 126-116-45 (+6.5 Units)
Matchweek 24: 4-5-2 (-1.8 Units)
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English Premier League
Saturday, February 1st
7:30 am EST
Chelsea @ Leicester City (TV: NBCSN) – Leicester’s matches have had at least 3 goals in nine of their last eleven while Chelsea have had three of their last five have at least 3 goals. Also in Chelsea’s away matches this year, they’re averaging 3.75 total goals per match. Leicester have also only lost two of their home matches this season, one to Liverpool, and Chelsea have yet to beat a team in the current top five away from home. Over 3 total goals (+115) and Leicester City Pickem (-115).
10:00 am EST
Aston Villa @ Bournemouth – Both of these teams will be dying for three points in this match, but it’s arguably more important that they avoid dropping the three points. There’s a tight race at the bottom for relegation and I think the draw has too much value to pass up here. Draw (+255).
Sheffield United @ Crystal Palace – Sheffield have beaten the teams that sit in the bottom six pretty handily this season but have struggled against mid-table and the top seven in recent months. Away from home they’ve only lost twice in 12 matches, but they’ve also only won three times with seven draws. Palace’s form hasn’t been all that bad with only one league loss since Christmas but they are yet to break through with a big win. I think this is a great spot for them to get at least a point and possibly that win that basically guarantees their safety. Crystal Palace Pickem (+110).
Southampton @ Liverpool (TV: NBCSN) – Obviously Liverpool have been one of the better sides in Premier League history but they’re certainly not blowing teams out on the scoreline. Now they’ll go up against Southampton team who have only one loss in their last nine in all competitions and they’ve yet to lost by multiple goals in the league since the 9-0 debacle against Leicester in October. Liverpool could be cycling their squad a bit and I think this one will be closer than many might expect. Southampton +1.5 (+105).
Norwich @ Newcastle – Norwich only have three league wins all season and will now have to travel to St. James Park to play a Newcastle team who rank 7th in the home table. They have also yet to lose in their last six in all competitions. I’ll take Newcastle with the positive odds on the moneyline. Newcastle -0.5 (+125).
Everton @ Watford – Believe it or not, Watford have been the team to pick recently. They have had only one league loss in their last seven matches and they’re undefeated in their last five at home with convincing wins over United, Aston Villa and Wolves. Everton have been abysmal away from home this season and they’ve just been too inconsistent with how they’ve played. Watford Pickem (-110).
Brighton @ West Ham – West Ham have been dreadful this season and they now have to face a Brighton team who have only really had one bad performance since November (last week’s loss to Bournemouth). West Ham will also have 8 days less of rest compared to Brighton. Brighton Pickem (-100).
12:30 pm EST
Wolves @ Manchester United (TV: NBC) – United have been very inconsistent in their last nine matches in all competitions (in order from L to R), WWLLWWLDL. Wolves’ form hasn’t been much better, LWLDDLLWW, but they’ve played better competition and have played more matches than anyone else. They finally get over a week’s rest here while United will have another short week and there also a few matchup concerns for United here (Traore and Wolves’ midfield to name a few). Wolves’ moneyline might be a bit of a longshot but the value is too good to pass up. Wolves (+250).
Sunday, February 2nd
9:00 am EST
Arsenal @ Burnley (TV: NBCSN) – This match features two inconsistent teams and it’s been hard to pick either one of them. One thing that does stand out to me though is the fact that both of these teams average 2.75 total goals per game this season and five of Burnley’s last six matches have had at least 3 goals. I’m going to take a shot at the over here. Over 2.5 total goals (-105).
Manchester City @ Tottenham (TV: NBCSN) – The last time these two teams played it was a weird 2-2 draw at the start of the season. But Spurs recently have kept the gates shut under Mourinho with only one of their last eleven matches having more than three goals. Yes, City score and concede a lot of goals, but I think they’ll have some trouble here against what will likely be a resolute Spurs team. Under 3 total goals (+110).
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Stay kickin’ it. Peace.