This one will be quick as I’m short on time this week. I’ll provide a pick and maybe some quick analysis to go along with it. If you don’t like it, I don’t care and you can tweet your frustrations my way @nicodegallo.
Last Two Seasons: 327-273-91 (+21.6 units)
This Season: 115-104-43 (+8.8 Units)
Matchweek 22: 4-5-1 (-1.8 Units)
English Premier League
Saturday, January 18th
Tottenham @ Watford (TV: NBCSN) – Watford are on fire and Spurs only have two wins away from home this season with only 10 points, ranking 12th in the league. I’ll take the home dogs. Watford +0.5 (-135).
Sheffield United @ Arsenal (TV: NBCSN) – Arsenal actually look good under Arteta and if it wasn’t for an Aubameyang red card, they probably would have gotten more out of the Palace game. I like Arsenal to win here at home. Arsenal -0.5 (-115).
Aston Villa @ Brighton – This game sits at a one-goal spread which is way too much for me. Yes Villa are really banged up, but Brighton only have one win in their last eight matches and I don’t see them running away with this by more than a goal. Aston Villa +1 (-125).
Crystal Palace @ Manchester City – This spread is too big. Yes I know, City are playing their best footy right now but Palace only have one loss in their last nine and I can’t take City at -2.5. I also can’t bet against City right now. PASS.
Bournemouth @ Norwich – This game could decide the fate for both teams, even though I think Norwich might be set to go down at this point. I don’t see either team getting a win and the draw odds look too good to pass up. Draw +255.
Wolves @ Southampton – Wolves are so banged up right now and have played 38 games while most other teams have yet to play more than 27-30. Southampton are on fire as well, going 5-1-0 in their last six in all competitions. Southampton +140.
Everton @ West Ham – These two teams are on different paths with Everton beginning to play well and West Ham returning to their poor form. I’ll take a shot on the Everton moneyline. Everton +145.
Chelsea @ Newcastle (TV: NBC) – Newcastle only have three losses at home this season and only one of them was by more than a goal. Chelsea only have three wins away from home since late October and only one of them was by more than one goal. Newcastle +1 (-105).
Leicester @ Burnley (TV: NBCSN) – I can’t get a good read on this game. Leicester are usually a good bet but have fallen out of form and the line is too small to take a Burnley team I don’t have too much confidence in right now. PASS.
Liverpool @ Manchester United (TV: NBCSN) – In this fixture the table doesn’t matter, form doesn’t matter, the starting XI doesn’t matter and sometimes the venue doesn’t matter. Only once in the last four seasons in the league (eight matches) have one of these teams won by more than a goal and I actually think this could be a trap game for Liverpool here. Too many points to give United in this one. Manchester United +1.5 (-120).
Stay kickin’ it. Peace.