Champions League Matchweek 4, pt. 2

This Season: 76-68-33 (+7.0 Units)
UCL Matchweek 4: 2-4 (-2.4 Units)

Everything was looking fantastic for me towards the end of the matches on Tuesday, that is until Ajax blew a 4-1 lead costing me my +300 moneyline and Inter blew a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2. In total those comebacks provided me with a 6 unit swing in the opposite direction.

To me those losses didn’t hurt as much as you’d think since they are somewhat fluke situations and without Ajax’s two red cards, I would be sitting still well in the positive. But we carry on.

Let’s keep it rolling into Wednesday’s matches.

UEFA Champions League
Wednesday, November 6th
3:00 pm EST

Manchester City @ Atalanta – Man City have now won five straight matches with an average margin of victory of 2.4 goals and have come from behind in two of those matches. The last time they faced Atalanta they won 5-1 after slipping behind 1-0 early. Within 40 minutes of that opening goal, City piled on and scored 5 with utter ease against an Atalanta defense who has been leaking goals this season. In their last five matches, Atalanta has allowed an average of 2.6 goals per game and have only won one of those. You can’t have that type of defense against City and expect to be successful especially when a win for them will put them through to the next round. Manchester City -1 (-130).

Atletico Madrid @ Leverkusen – Atletico are playing classic Simeone ball right now with no losses in their last eleven matches, but a handful of draws. A win here and a Juventus win against Moscow would guarantee their passage to the round of 16 and having them at a pickem against a Leverkusen team who has one win in their last seven matches, is a bold move from Vegas. Leverkusen have yet to play up to better teams’ levels with losses in every game they were underdogs in. I’ll gladly take Atletico here on the pickem line since they’ve been almost immune to losses this season. Atletico Madrid Pickem (-105).

Tottenham @ Red Star Belgrade – Travelling to Serbia and entering the thunderdome that is Rajko Mitic Stadium expecting an easy result is one of the stupidest things you can do in sports. Even Liverpool, who won the Champions League last year, lost at Red Star in the group stage last season. Red Star beat Olympiacos handily in their only home game in the group stage so far this season and they played pretty damn well against Bayern in Munich earlier in the season. Now they’ll face a Spurs team who is in complete disarray right now. Yes, Spurs won this reverse fixture in London 5-0 but to me that doesn’t matter. They’re without a win away from home this entire season so far and they’ll likely be without a few key players in this match. I’ll take Red Star as underdogs in a match that they could just as easily win. Red Star Belgrade +1 (-115).

Club Brugge @ PSG – PSG has been immune to draws so far this season. They either blow a team out of the water or they slip up and lose outright in a shocking defeat. At home in the groups stage so far they’re 1-0 with a 3-0 win against Real Madrid and even though they slipped up this past weekend away from home, they still played well and they won their previous six matches by an average margin of 3 goals per game. They’re fully healthy with the exception of Neymar, who is never healthy, and a win here would guarantee a round of 16 birth and first place in the group. Brugge aren’t bad and they’ve had some good results so far this season, but they lost 5-0 to PSG in the reverse fixture at home a few weeks ago and looked very poor. I’ll take PSG in what could be a blowout here. PSG -2 (-120).

Shakhtar Donetsk @ Dinamo Zagreb – This game is a complete toss up to me. Both teams are tied in the group with Zagreb only ahead due to goal differential and they played to a 2-2 draw in Donetsk a few weeks ago. There isn’t much thought process behind this other than I think Zagreb are being overvalued as favorites in what should really be a pickem game and I think Shakhtar have a really good price on them to win this game. I expect this line to move so get it while you can. Shakhtar Donetsk +0.5 (-135) and Shakhtar Donetsk Moneyline (+220).

Here are the other matches on Wednesday that I decided to avoid…

Juventus @ Lokomotiv Moscow – Spread: Juventus -1/Moscow +1, Over/Under: 2.5.

Olympiacos @ Bayern Munic – Spread: Bayern -2.5/Olympiacos +2.5, Over/Under: 4.

Galatasaray @ Real Madrid – Spread: Real Madrid -2/Galatasaray +2, Over/Under 3.5.

Enjoy the matches!

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo

Nico

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