Ajax v. Tottenham Champions League Semifinal, Leg 2

Before we dive into Wednesday’s match let’s go over what happened at Anfield on Tuesday. Liverpool pulled off one of the bigger comebacks in Champions League history, winning 4-0 and 4-3 on aggregate. Without two of their best players, Liverpool completely took it to Barcelona and limited Lionel Messi’s effectiveness. Barca had chances in the first half to score an away goal which would have forced Liverpool to score 5 to advance, but they couldn’t put them away. It’s Barcelona’s second year in a row blowing a 3-goal aggregate lead in the Champions League and Liverpool now return to their second straight Champions League Final. All credit goes to Klopp who had a gameplan and had his players believing that they could achieve the impossible.

This Season: 206-161-47 (+18.4 Units)
Liverpool v. Barcelona: 1-0 (+1.0 Units)
$100 bettor has won $1,840 this season

Tottenham @ Ajax (TV: TNT) – I don’t know if there is any way this match can top Tuesday’s match but I will never doubt any Champions League Semifinal. Both teams haven’t made European Cup Finals in decades so it should be a very tense affair and I expect both teams to go for it from the gate. I have two picks here and the first one, if you’ve read my recent pieces, is a pretty expected one from me.

I picked the over in Tuesday’s match and it hit. That’s now 15 of 18 2nd legs this season in the Champions League that had at least 3 goals. Adding to that, 8 of the last 11 2nd leg Semifinals have had at least 3 goals. I also think for this match specifically, the over is a good pick regardless of the historical data. Spurs need at least a goal, we all know that, but if they score then Ajax will need one as well. Since both teams likely will need at least a goal, I expect it to be back and forth and full of chances, much like how I expected the start of Liverpool Barca to be. Also, both of these teams like to score goals and that’s generally how they’ve won their matches this season, Ajax specifically. Neither defense is that special but their attacks have caused problems to some of the best teams in the world this season. I’ll take the over.

I’m also going to take Ajax moneyline. This team is not only better than Spurs are, but they’re in much better form than them. Spurs have one win in their last six matches (going 1-5) with their only win coming against Brighton at home. Away from home they haven’t won since early March when they went to Dortmund and closed out the Quarterfinals (0-5 in last 5 away matches). They’ve played 9 matches in 34 days, have dealt with serious injury and depth issues and are coming off of a really bad loss to Bournemouth this past weekend where they had two red cards. The squad that they will likely throw out there hasn’t played consistently together almost all season long and I don’t have much confidence in them slowing down Ajax’s fluid style. As you could probably guess, I don’t like Spurs’ chances in this one.

Meanwhile Ajax have won 10 straight with their last home loss coming in February to Real Madrid in a match that they could have easily won. They’re healthier, in better form and will be home in an absolute fortress of a stadium. Their free-flowing total football has been almost unstoppable this season and I think Spurs are genuinely unequipped to handle it. Spurs’ press seems ineffective against Ajax and once they break that press, they can counter better than anyone else in the competition. Sadly for Spurs, they will likely have to apply that press due to the urgency of the situation and I think that will be their downfall in this one.

Some say Ajax played one of their worst Champions League matches of the season last week and they still went to Spurs and won 1-0. I fancy Ajax to win this match and move onto the Final to face Liverpool. Over 3 goals (+105) and Ajax Moneyline (+125).

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo

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Nico

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