We have an amazing weekend ahead of us but let’s look back on what was an interesting week in the Premier League.
This Season’s Record: 175-150-41 (+3.5 Units)
Matchweek 33 Weekday: 4-3 (+0.8 Units)
Quick Premier League Recap:
- Man City jump back into first as they are now one point above Liverpool with the same matches played.
- Spurs win in their new ground for the first time and jump back into third place, pushing Arsenal back to fourth.
- Chelsea won and sit in fifth tied with Arsenal on points, but with a worse differential than the gooners by five goals.
- Fulham have been relegated.
We go into a weekend which includes a few MASSIVE matches including the Der Klassiker between Bayern and Dortmund, Barcelona host Atletico Madrid, Juventus host Milan and the FA Cup semifinals will be taking place at Wembley. I’ll have a pick for all of them as well as a few wild card matches where I find some value.
I put my Bayern/Dortmund preview separately due to it’s length compared to my other previews which you can find HERE. I highly recommend you take a quick read as it may be the match of the club season.
Let’s kick it…
Saturday, April 6th
9:30 am EST
RB Leipzig @ Bayer Leverkusen (TV: FS2) – These two have been in polar opposite form both short term and long term. Leverkusen have lost their last two and are 2-1-3 (W-D-L) in their last six while Lepizig have won their last three and their only losses in 2019 have been to Dortmund and Bayern. I love Leipzig not only because of the intrinsic value a pickem has, but the price of (+110) is too good to pass up when they’re the better team and are in better form. They’ve also been impressive away from home this season. I’ll take Leipzig. RB Leipzig (Pickem, +110).
English Premier League
10:00 am EST
Leicester @ Huddersfield – Leicester are on fire right now and they will be traveling to a Huddersfield squad who are in complete shambles. They’ve lost four straight to Brighton, Bournemouth, West Ham and Palace while Leicester have won four of the last five. Adding to that, Leicester are sixth in the away table in the league and Huddersfield are last in the home table. I’ll never bet on Huddersfield and Leicester are a hot ticket, so good luck convincing me against this one even with the heavy price as favorites. Leicester City (-0.5, -130).
Crystal Palace @ Newcastle United (TV: NBCSN) – Newcastle have turned their poor away form from earlier in the season around but will have to face a Palace team who have been great away from home this season. But not only is history not on Palace’s side here as they have only won once at Newcastle since the early 70’s, but Newcastle have won their last four at home including wins against City and Everton. I also think Palace having to play two away matches back to back will be tough, especially going to rival Spurs opening their new stadium then to Newcastle which is one of the harder places to play at. Yes Palace’s form all season away from home has been great, but Newcastle are in a bit better shape especially as of late. I like Newcastle on the home pickem line. Newcastle United (Pick, -120).
Italian Serie A
12:00 pm EST
AC Milan @ Juventus (Stream: ESPN+) – Juve will be coming into this match with a cloud looming over them after the Moise Kean incident. If you’re unfamiliar; Moise Kean, the teenage stud for Juventus, received racist monkey chants and then scored and celebrated with his arms wide facing the racist fans. Bonucci, Kean’s teammate, said Kean was partially to blame for the abuse he got, sparking worldwide criticism. I’m a firm believer in taking the locker room situation into account when making picks, and I actually think they will have this sorted out before the match against Milan. It’s too big of an issue to not address immediately and as much as Bonucci was in the wrong, I’m sure the players have already addressed it and made sure there are no more issues. But I like Juve for more than that. Juve have been unbelievable at home, Milan have been fifth in the league away from home this season and the last time Milan beat Juve at Juve was in 2012 and the last time they won there in the Serie A was in 2011. I just can’t fade Juve at home here in a statement game even before their Champions League match on Wednesday. Juventus (-0.5, -125).
Spanish La Liga
12:30 pm EST
Valencia @ Rayo Vallecano (TV: beIN Sports) – Rayo have lost again! That’s eight losses in their last nine matches, with the other being a draw, and they are now on their way to be relegated. Sadly, they’re facing a Valencia team who just beat Real Madrid (which I called), who haven’t lost in the league since January 5th and who have been pretty darn good away from home this season. There’s just no way I can fade them here. Valencia (-0.5, -105).
English FA Cup Semifinal
12:30 pm EST
Manchester City @ Brighton (Stream: ESPN+) – City will win this semifinal, but they haven’t been as much of a sure thing in these types of matches as you’d think. With the spread being 2.5 and it being a semifinal against a somewhat stingy Brighton team, I’m staying away from that number. But with a total of 3 goals, I love the over. Not only because this City team could have a day and run ragged all over them, but because only one of the last nine FA Cup semifinals have gone under 3 goals. It will either be a 3+ City win or a 2-1/3-1 match. I’ll take the over. Over 3 goals (-120).
Spanish La Liga
2:45 pm EST
Atletico Madrid @ FC Barcelona (TV: beIN Sports) – Another fantastic match even though it doesn’t matter nearly as much as Der Klassiker. It will also be a completely different match as Bayern/Dortmund as this one is usually a very tight, low-scoring game. In fact only only two of the last eight matchups have gone over two goals. But as good as Atletico have been playing, they’ll have to go up against a Barca team who haven’t lost in all competitions since January 23rd (15 matches) and who haven’t lost in the league since November 11th (19 league matches). They’ve won three straight at home and they are fresh off of an insane comeback at Villareal, where a Messi free kick and a Suarez last-second goal, both in extra time, equalized the scoreline at 4-4. I’ll take a low-scoring Barcelona win here in what will be a very tight and intense match. The under could also act as a hedge in what could be a 1-1 or even a 0-0 draw. FC Barcelona (-0.5, -120) and Under 2.5 goals (-110).
Sunday, April 7th
English FA Cup Semifinal
Wolves v. Watford (Stream: ESPN+) – The other FA Cup semifinal will be a much tighter match as the 7th and 8th team in the Premier League face off for a shot at what will likely be City in the final. Wolves have been fantastic this season especially for a newly promoted club and have the ability to beat anyone in the league top to bottom. Luckily the spread is a pickem which is gold in matches that can go into extra time if tied after 90 minutes. Sometimes teams play to get to extra time and penalties as it may be their best shot. I think the team that could be playing for extra time is Watford and Wolves will be the ones trying to win it. Wolves have been excellent in big matches as they beat United in the quarterfinal and in the league over the weekend, and I expect them to at the least put this one into extra time or win in the 90 minutes. I’ll lean on Wolves with the pickem line. Wolves (Pick, -120).
That’s all for this awesome weekend of footy. I hope you can wake up Saturday and Sunday morning with a cup of coffee (or beer) and some breakfast and enjoy the matches. Remember to read the Bayern/Dortmund preview for what will be a legendary match HERE.
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Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.