Who Will Win the Bundesliga? The Case for Borussia Dortmund

The last time a team won the Bundesliga that wasn’t named Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund was in 2008-2009 when Wolfsburg triumphed atop the German table. This year will be no different as the two clubs are tied atop the Bundesliga table, eleven points ahead of third place Leipzig. Luckily for Bayern they have a seven point lead on the goal differential tally, the tie-breaker if both clubs are tied on points, but a lot can change over the next two months especially when these two clubs face each other on April 6th.

I’m going to go into who has the better shot at winning the league title with their respective paths to the finish. In this piece I will go over Dortmund, following with a piece for Bayern’s chances.

The Case for Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund were on top of the table for most of the season until their bad run of form in February and early March, where they went five matches with only one win in the league and eight matches with one win in all competitions. They crashed out of the Champions League, DFB Pokal and lost their grip atop the Bundesliga table, allowing Bayern to take the top spot. Bayern’s outstanding form has also attributed to this as they have had only one league loss since away at Dortmund back in November. But Dortmund began to turn things around a bit with back to back wins before the international break and should come out of the break feeling good. Another thing that will help their title chase is that they will be playing less matches than their rivals Bayern, as the Bavarians will be playing in the DFB Pokal, the German domestic cup. They are expected to go far in the league cup, possibly chopping up their focus on the Bundesliga title.

Let’s see what Dortmund’s road ahead looks like and if they can gain enough points to top Bayern.

HOME v. Wolfsburg – Dortmund haven’t lost to Wolfsburg at home in the league since 2012 but they haven’t been beating them comfortably recently either. Their last two matches were 0-0 at home last January and a 1-0 win for Dortmund at Wolfsburg this past November. Wolfsburg are also on the cusp of a Europa League spot as they sit four points off of a guaranteed place in European competition and are tied with Leverkusen for the Europa League playoff spot. This has the makings of a trap game for Dortmund, and could well be a draw. But for the sake of this hypothetical let’s say they take the three points at home where they have yet to lose this season.(3 pts).

AWAY v. Bayern Munich – Ahhh the big one. If someone can grab the three points here they will surely be the favorites to win the league. The bad news for Dortmund is that they haven’t taken points away at Bayern in the league in five years and Bayern have won seven straight home games this year scoring 24 goals and conceding only 2. It will be a very tough task for Dortmund to come in and they may even try to settle for the draw. I think that will doom them and I expect Bayern to take this one. (0 pts).

HOME v. Mainz – They shouldn’t have trouble with a Mainz side who have been poor this season especially away from home where they have collected only 11 points from 13 matches. (3 pts).

AWAY v. Freiburg – Freiburg haven’t been bad at home this season, ranking mid-table in that juncture but they just aren’t strong enough to beat this Dortmund team. They haven’t beaten Dortmund since May of 2010 and I see that trend continuing. (3 pts).

HOME v. Schalke – What’s really tricky about this match for Dortmund is that Schalke could be facing a relegation battle at this stage in the season and are historically always up for this derby. They’ve split the last two and the previous four encounters resulted in draws. If Schalke are fighting for their lives I think another draw is likely here in what is always a very tightly contested match. (1 pt).

AWAY v. Werder Bremen – Another trap game here for Dortmund as they face a Werder team who has troubled them not only in this season but in recent years as well. Their DFB Pokal match earlier in the year went to penalties with Werder prevailing, their league match in December was very tight going 2-1 to Dortmund and the last time these two met at Werder they drew 1-1. I think Dortmund slip up again here and drop points in a very tough away match. (1 pt).

HOME v. Fortuna Dusseldorf – As of 3/25 Dusseldorf sit in 12th place and although they’ve been good against top opposition this year, I don’t see them waltzing into Signal Iduna Park in May and getting points. This will be Dortmund’s easiest chance at three points and I expect them to take full advantage.. (3 pts).

AWAY v. Mochengladbach – If the league is still up for grabs on the last day of the season here, expect an all-timer between these two clubs. Gladbach have been brilliant this season sitting in 4th place and have been more than capable at home. They could be likely fighting for a Champions League spot and I have a hard time envisioning Dortmund coming out of this one with all three points. If both teams are fighting for something, I see this one being a draw. (1 pt).

With that point tally Dortmund would finish with 75 points, which would very rarely win you the Bundesliga. But with this seasons lower-than-normal point total you never know and if they can pick up form during this stretch then anything can happen. Their odds to win the Bundesliga currently sit at (+225) which has value, but their path does looks grim as they’d need to win two derbies and a tough match on the last day of the year to win the league. They’d also likely have to finish above Bayern instead of tying them as they are behind on goal differential, another obstacle for the yellow and black.

As I said before, their price to win the league does have value based on the positive odds, but the reality of their race to the top is that they’d likely need a miracle run to win it. I wouldn’t buy into Dortmund right now but I also wouldn’t completely rule out their chances to make things interesting, especially if they can grab points against Bayern. But with that being unlikely and due to them being behind on goal differential, I don’t see Dortmund coming out of this season crowned champions.

Keep an eye out for Bayern Munich’s case for the Bundesliga coming soon.

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Facebook: Can I Kick It

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Nico

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