A crazy Matchweek 25 included a big Chelsea Win at home to Huddersfield to get back on track, Wolves beat Everton at Goodison to cement 7th place, Cardiff got a big win at home to Bournemouth to stay alive, Manchester City were the only team to have two matches in the window winning both and Liverpool dropped points at West Ham in a 1-1 draw.
Manchester City now sit atop the Premier League due to a better goal differential but Liverpool, and the rest of the league, still have a game in hand for a few weeks.
This Season’s Record: 132-118-32 (-0.3 Units)
Matchweek 23 Record: 7-2-2 (+6.1 Units)
What a week! Now let’s keep rolling into this weekend’s fixtures.
Saturday, February 9th
English Premier League
7:30 am EST
Manchester United @ Fulham (NBCSN) – Fulham have been terrible away from home this season, so luckily they face United at home in this match. In their last five home matches, they are 2-1-2 but none of their two losses were by more than a goal. Add that with a few recent unconvincing results from United, and I like Fulham with the points at home. Fulham (+1, -115).
Bournemouth @ Liverpool (NBCSN) – In my opinion, now is the time to buy on big underdogs against Liverpool. In their last six matches they are 2-2-2 and have yet to win by more than a goal (last win by more than a goal was against Arsenal on 12/29). I don’t see this one getting too out of hand for Bournemouth, although they will surely lose, and I think Liverpool are starting to fell City’s pressure. I’m again going to take the points here. Bournemouth (+2, -110).
Cardiff @ Southampton – Cardiff are coming off of a big win against previously mentioned Bournemouth, giving them some more hope that they can climb out of the relegation zone. They’ll face a Southampton side who are in good form in 2019 but are also barely keeping their head above water as they only sit 2 points above Cardiff just outside that purge zone. This is a classic relegation battle that often ends in a draw, especially with two low-scoring teams. I’m finding the value play in the draw here. Draw (+230).
Arsenal @ Huddersfield (CNBC) – I don’t know what else to say about Huddersfield right now. Their only points since November were a draw to Cardiff on 1/12 and are almost guaranteed relegation at this point with 11 points and a 12 point climb to get out of the relegation zone. If you need any more reason to bet on Arsenal, they have only dropped points to a non top 6 team three times this season and have not dropped points against anyone in the relegation zone all year long. Arsenal (-1, +105).
Everton @ Watford – Everton only have one win in their last five matches overall (against Huddersfield) and they’ve been pretty poor away from home. As a team who generally sits outside that top 6 spot in 7th, the 12th best away record is not going to help their cause as they’re now fighting to stay in the top ten. Watford meanwhile have gone 3-3-1 in their last seven with their only loss coming against Spurs where they blew a late 1-0 lead. Being home, the better squad and in better form, Watford is the clear choice so I’m going to double down on them to get the result. I’m taking the pickem spread and the moneyline, picking against an Everton outright win, breaking even with a draw and doubling my winnings with a Watford win. Watford (Pick, -130), Watford (+125).
West Ham @ Crystal Palace – Palace got a much needed home win in the league when they beat Fulham 2-0 on Saturday and have also been in some good form with two wins and a draw in their last three in all competitions. They’ll face a West Ham team who are winless in their last three in the league (although they did grind out a big draw to Liverpool), winless in their last four in all competitions and winless in their last three away matches. They have some serious depth issues that have been plaguing them for all of 2019 and it’s starting to show a bit. Fade the out of form team away from home here. Crystal Palace (-0.5, +105).
12:30 pm EST
Burnley @ Brighton – Brighton have hit a minor blip in form over the last few weeks and are facing a Burnley team who are really starting to turn things around. They have one loss in all competitions in 2019 and are undefeated in the Premier League. But most of those matches were either at home and their only away win in 2019 was against Huddersfield. They haven’t been good away from home all year long and Brighton have been solid so far at home. I like Brighton to right the ship in a perfect opportunity against a Burnley side who are vulnerable on the road. Brighton (-0.5, +105).
Sunday, February 10th
8:30 am EST
Leicester @ Tottenham – Leicester’s free-fall is getting bad and it doesn’t look like they’ve found any sort of solution. They’re winless in their last five overall, four in the league and have dropped points in matches that they should’ve done a lot better in. Spurs meanwhile have navigated this period without Kane and Alli much better than many would have expected, rebounding with two straight home wins after a few tough weeks at the club. I like Spurs to keep their home form rolling and take advantage of a Leicester team in peril. Tottenham (-1, +115).
11:00 am EST
Chelsea @ Man City – Pep Guardiola rarely lets a team beat him twice in a season, as his ability to adapt and exploit is unlike any other manager in the sport. City are not only looking for revenge after their 2-0 loss, but they are looking to keep pressure on Liverpool atop the table. Luckily for Pep and his City squad, Chelsea have lost three straight away from home and City are 6-0 in their last 6 with 29 goals scored and only one conceded. I love City at home with a chance for a statement win. Man City (-1, -120).
Monday, February 11th
3:00 pm EST
Newcastle @ Wolves – Wolves’ only loss in the league in 2019 was at City where they played most of the match man down. They’ve been on a brilliant run of form and are arguably the best team outside of the top 6, and when on their game, can run with some clubs in the top 6. Newcastle meanwhile have been inconsistent in this calendar year and have gone four straight without a win away from home. I love Wolves here even with a juiced line. Wolves (-0.5, -130).
Real Madrid @ Atletico Madrid – Atletico Madrid (Pick, -130)
Schalke @ Bayern Munich – Schalke (-2, -115)
Hertha Berlin @ Borussia Mochengladbach –
Borussia Mochengladbach (-1, -105)
That’s all for this weekend’s picks!
Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.