Well after my brutal week a few weeks ago, I bounced back with a 6-3-2 record and added 2.8 units back to my tally. Here’s where I stand going into Matchweek 18 this weekend.
This Season’s Record: 101-91-24 (-2.1 Units)
Matchweek 17 Record: 6-3-2 (+2.8 Units)
We have 40 Premier League matches over the next 14 days in what’s called the Premier League Festive Fixutes, so let’s waste no time and get this Matchweek started…
Friday, December 21st
2:30 pm EST
Borussia Monchengladbach @ Borussia Dortmund – Yeah, yeah, yeah their names are long and crazy but this match will be an amazing one in the Bundesliga on Friday afternoon. First place takes on second place with Dortmund ahead by six points over Gladbach, Bayern, Leipzig and Frankfurt. Dortmund lost their first league match this week at Fortuna Dusseldorf but I don’t think that will phase this team at all. They’re undefeated at home this season and have one of the deadliest attacks in all of world football right now, while Gladbach find themselves in poor away form both recently and on the season. They’ve yet to win in their last two away matches and are eighth in the league in the away table. They’ve relied heavily on home results and I like Dortmund on the spread even with the likelihood of the push. Dortmund (-1, -115).
English Premier League
3:00 pm EST
Liverpool @ Wolves – Wolves host the current league leaders with the chance to climb to sixth place depending on United’s results this weekend. They’ll play a Liverpool side who have won their last six matches in the league, remain undefeated and have a narrow one-point lead atop the table over Manchester City. But Wolves are no easy out for a team like Liverpool, as they’ve played the top clubs quite well this season. They beat Chelsea at home, drew City at home, drew Arsenal away, lost to Spurs by one goal at home and drew at United. They know how to limit teams offensively and grab points as they’re a well-coached squad by manager Nuno Espírito Santo. Luckily for Wolves they have played well with minimal possession this season, something that will be crucial in a match like this. I like Wolves on the spread here with the chances they can either nab a point or limit Liverpool to a one-goal win. Wolves (+1, -105).
Saturday, December 22nd
English Premier League
7:30 am EST
Burnley @ Arsenal – Arsenal are coming off of a midweek cup loss to rivals Tottenham as their 22-match unbeaten streak ended. They face a Burnley side who have been very poor this season, but in a interesting way. They have only lost by more than two goals twice in the league, to City and United, and recently had back-to-back solid matches (win over Brighton and only a 1-0 loss from a late goal by Tottenham). I think Arsenal’s depth was exposed this week in their loss to Spurs and I don’t see this one getting too out of hand. If Burnley can grab a goal against an Arsenal defense which ranks outside of the top five, they can easily make this one close. I think 2 points on the spread is too much for this one. Burnley (+2, -120).
10:00 am EST
Brighton @ Bournemouth – Bournemouth come into this match in poor form as they lost this week in a cup Quarterfinal to Chelsea where they played all of their starters. They’ll face a Brighton squad who are well-rested and have shown promising flashes lately of what they can do. In Brighton’s last five matches, they’ve only failed to cover once and it was away to Burnley in a match they should have won anyway. I can’t trust an out of form Bournemouth side who have had three tough fixtures in the last two weeks against a solid underdog in Brighton. Win or draw and they cover; sign me up. Brighton (+0.5, -105).
Crystal Palace @ Manchester City – Since their loss to Chelsea, City seem to be back on track with wins against Everton in the league and at Leicester in the cup via penalties. They’re getting healthier by the day as Aguero, De Bruyne and Danilo will all be healthy. Historically at home they are fantastic against Palace, outscoring them 19-1 in their last 4 home matches against them but it was Palace last season who broke City’s eighteen match win streak with a tough 0-0 draw. They know they need three points if they want to keep the pressure on Liverpool and will take as many goals as they can get. At home this season City are 9-0-0 with 33 goals scored and only 6 conceded, both the best in Europe’s top five leagues. There’s just no reason to fade them at the Etihad right now. Man City (-2.5, +105).
Watford @ West Ham – This has contender/pretender written all over it for both teams. The Hammers come into this match in amazing form, winning their last four league matches and have only one loss in their last eight league matches. But those last four wins came against Newcastle (14th), Cardiff (16th), Palace (15th) and Fulham (20th). Watford meanwhile are coming off of a win against Cardiff, an away draw to Everton and they gave Man City a run for their money losing 2-1 a few weeks ago. I think West Ham are naturally due for some sort of regression and they’re up against the toughest team they’ve faced in weeks. The match is currently at a pickem but heavily weighted towards West Ham, giving Watford tremendous value. I call pretenders on West Ham this week. Watford (Pickem, +115).
12:30 pm EST
Bayern Munich @ Eintracht Frankfurt – It may not look like the sexiest match of the weekend but it has massive implications in the Bundesliga. Bayern now sit in third, six points behind leaders and rivals Dortmund while Frankfurt have had a dream season sitting in fifth only six points behind said Bayern. Though this is a Frankfurt team who have taken seven points from their last three matches, haven’t lost by more than a goal since September 26th and haven’t lost a home match since their first match of the season. Bayern meanwhile have finally found their form after a shaky start as they’ve won four straight Bundesliga matches. But in their three matches against the top 4, they have only earned three points (1-0 win over Leipzig this past Wedensday). I’m not sold on Bayern and with a one-goal spread at home, I like Frankfurt as the home dogs with some positive odds. Frankfurt (+1, +105).
Italian Serie A
2:30 pm EST
Roma @ Juventus – Roma couldn’t visit Juventus at a worse time. The Romans have won one of their last seven matches, currently have the tenth best road record in the league and the have only scored eight goals in their eight away matches this season which ranks 13th. They’ll face a Juventus team who’s been quite the opposite. Juve have lost only one of their last seven matches and boast the best home record in the league so far this season. I hate that the spread is 1.5, but this one has the chance to get away from Roma. If I had to lean one way off of the 1.5 spread, I’ll lean Juve. Juventus (-1.5, +115).
French Ligue 1
3:00 pm EST
Guingamp @ Monaco – Well it hasn’t been anything near the season Monaco wanted or even expected, as they sit in 19th place only above bottom-dwellers and this week’s opponent Guingamp. They’re 2-2 in their last four matches but have won the matches you’d expect them to get points from. This could be the point in the season where they turn it around I think it’s a great opportunity for Thierry Henry’s men to start to climb out of the relegation zone at home. Monaco (-0.5, -110).
Dijon @ Saint-Etienne – I’ve loved picking Saint-Etienne this season as they have been hitting spreads all year long. They are an amazing bet at home where they are undefeated and third in the home table this season. They go up against a Dijon team who’s just as bad as their mustard (no idea if that’s where it actually comes from and yeah I don’t like dijon mustard deal with it). I love SE here at home even with the odds of a push considering the on-goal spread. Saint-Etienne (-1, -105).
Sunday, December 23rd
English Premier League
11:00 am EST
Tottenham @ Everton – Spurs come into this match coming off of a massive cup win at North London rivals Arsenal and in good form. They haven’t lost in five matches in a stretch that included at Leicester, at Barcelona and at Arsenal. To add to that, they’ve gone 10-1-1 in their last twelve matches in all competitions. Meanwhile Everton are staring at the other end of the barrel as they are winless in their last four matches and are yet to beat a top 6 side this season. I don’t love the fact that Spurs are favorites but I think riding their energy/form here isn’t a bad idea and considering they have been the best team away from home this season, I’m willing to take the risk. Tottenham (-0.5, +125).
That’s all for this weekend’s betting preview! I hope you enjoyed!
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Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.