Matchweek 12 Betting Preview

Boy do we have an amazing slate this weekend for you as two of the biggest Derbies in the world will be taking place in the Manchester Derby (City/United) and Der Klassiker (Bayern/Dortmund). Let’s get this puppy going!

This Season’s Record: 71-62-15 (+0.9 Units)
UCL Matchday 4 Record: 5-3-1 (-0.2 Units)

If it weren’t for a Juve 3 unit loss after blowing their lead in the 85th minute, things would be looking fantastic but alas here we are making little to no progress this week. Let’s dive into the 9 picks I have from 4 different leagues including 2 Derbies and MLS Cup Playoffs.

Saturday, November 10th

West Ham @ Huddersfield – West Ham have slowly found their footing in the league after a rocky start. Huddersfield meanwhile only have one win from their 11 matches and currently have the 2nd worst goal differential in the league. West Ham have fantastic odds on their -0.5 line after they’ve survived a recent gauntlet in their schedule, pulling out a few good results. I’m confident enough in the hammers to get three points here, even with the risky favorite tag. West Ham (-0.5, +125).

Burnley @ Leicester City – Leicester will return to their home ground for the first time since the tragic death of their owner who died in a helicopter crash outside of their stadium just two weeks ago. Last week I picked them out of pure emotion and I’m going to do the same here. Burnley’s last three results have been a 5-0 loss to City, a 4-0 loss to Chelsea and a 4-2 loss to West Ham. It’s likely a push but I can’t fade Leicester at home against a poor Burnley team in these circumstances. Leicester City (-1, -115). 

Bournemouth @ Newcastle – I didn’t expect this one to be a pickem as Bournemouth currently sit in the top 6 and Newcastle are fighting to stay alive in 17th. Newcastle have lost 5 of their 6 home matches and Bournemouth boast the 7th best away record, proving that the Cherries’ pickem line has a lot of value even with the juice. Vegas is expecting a bounce back from Newcastle who are historically good at home and they’re coming off two decent results, but I’ll take my chances with the draw in my favor. Bournemouth (Pick, -115).

Bayern Munich @ Borussia Dortmund – Der Klassiker will be taking place with somewhat of a role reversal this year as Dortmund have a controlling lead in the Bundesliga and Bayern have had to climb back to third place. Dortmund have an unprecedented +20 goal differential through 10 matches, while Bayern have a +7 and and are 2-2-1 away from home. So you’d expect Bayern to be favored right? Guess again folks. Dortmund are HOME DOGS in this match and my mouth is watering. With the wiggle room of a win or a draw, I’m willing to put 2 Units easily on this one. Borussia Dortmund (+0.5, -125) 2 UNITS.

Borussia Dortmund vs FC Bayern Munich - DFL-Supercup Final
Sunday, November 11th

Manchester United @ Manchester City – The big one. The biggest Derby in English football will take place Sunday morning on NBCSN with United traveling east to the Etihad Stadium. This match got a whole lot more interesting after United came back to beat Juventus in the Champions League, giving Juve their first loss this season. City meanwhile are on an absolute tear right now. They haven’t lost in their last 11 matches, they’ve won 10 of those 11, they’ve scored 35 goals while conceded 2 and they have gone back-to-back matches with scoring 6 goals. I’m sorry but there is no way I fade City here even with the large spread, as this one has the opportunity to get ugly. City rested a few key starters on Wednesday and United has had to travel this week, making it even harder on the visitors. We all know United will sit back and try to hit City on the counter, but City have been scoring early all season which has not allowed their opposition to get a that counter before they’re down 1-0. I think City come out firing early and jump to an early lead, forcing United to attack and get out of their comfort zone. COME ON CITY! Manchester City (-1.5, -105).

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PSG @ Monaco – Usually this is the match of the Ligue 1 season but this year it’s a bit different. Monaco have been atrocious all season long as they’re tied for last place with their only bright side being their goal differential at -6. PSG meanwhile are 12-0-0 in the league this year with a +34 goal differential through 12 matches, making this two-goal spread in this match just ridiculous. I won’t be fading PSG here with the opportunity of this one turning really ugly. PSG (-2, -110).

Real Salt Lake @ Sporting KC – After Leg 1’s 1-1 draw, SKC have the advantage here with the 2nd leg being in Kansas City. I don’t want to bite on the (1.5) spread since it’s just two high and these teams tend to play each other tight, but there may be value in this over. Only 1 of Real Salt Lake’s last 5 matches have gone under 3 and it was last week’s Leg 1 match. SKC has gone under 3 once in their last 4 matches and Leg 2’s tend to be higher scoring in general. Whoever goes down first will throw all the chips on the table, allowing the game to be free-flowing with goals to be scored. Over 3 (-110).

NYCFC @ Atlanta United – Atlanta United went 11-4-2 at home this season, scored 42 goals in those 17 matches and last lost in May at the Mercedes Benz Stadium. Their home field advantage is unlike anyone else’s in the league and I just can’t fade them here on the (-1) line with some good odds. I have also loved every single over at the Mercedes Benz this season and especially as of late. Only 1 of their last 6 home matches have gone under 3 and with Leg 2’s being naturally high scoring, I think it’s a safe play for at least a push. I love Atlanta here to clinch a spot in the Conference Championship with a convincing home win. Atlanta United (-1, +110) and Over 3 goals (-105). 

060318 atlanta united CC3

That’s all I’ve got for this weekend! Manchester Derby, Der Klassiker, Milan/Juve (no pick for it though) and MLS Cup Playoffs headline this awesome weekend of soccer. 

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Facebook: Can I Kick It 

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Nico

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