We’re all over the place here as I’ve been up and down for a few weeks now. But luckily there are a handful of games that have some serious value this weekend.
This Season’s Record: 61-51-10 (+0.2 Units)
Matchweek 10 Record: 1-5-1 (-5.0 Units)
It was another bad week for me but as I said two weeks ago when the same thing happened, you just have to trust the process. Let’s check out what we have in store for this weekend!
English Premier League
Manchester United @ Bournemouth – Bournemouth at home have been a juggernaut with 3 wins and 2 draws in their 5 matches. To add to that, they have taken 10 points out of a possible 12 in their last 4 matches scoring 9 goals and conceding 1. Untied meanwhile haven’t won away from home since they won 2-1 at Watford on 9/13 and can’t be trusted as favorites anymore. I cant stay away from the home dogs here. Bournemouth (+0.5, -120).
Leicester @ Cardiff City – If you haven’t heard by now, Leicester City’s owner was killed in a helicopter crash while taking off at the team’s stadium the night after their match on Monday. It’s a complete and utter tragedy for a club who once achieved the greatest upset in sports history. They are going to put absolutely everything out on the field on Saturday against one of the worst teams in the league and i have to ride them . Leicester (-0.5, +115).
Watford @ Newcastle – Newcastle have been surprisingly terrible this season and they are looking for a massive shift right now. They have lost all 5 of their matches at home with a -6 goal differential. It won’t help going up against a Watford team who can play with the best on any given weekend. Watford also boast the 6th best away points total and have won their last two matches by a combined total of 5-0. Watford (Pick, -110).
Tottenham @ Wolves – It is very rare that I will choose to bet against Wolves this season and that won’t start now. Spurs are coming off of a tough loss to City at home on Monday and had to turn around to play a cup match on Wednesday against West Ham where they won 3-1. Wolves meanwhile will be well-rested and at home in this one where they have only lost one of their last 5 home matches. I like Wolves on the pickem line here as I think Spurs will be gassed and it’s a great shot for Wolves to move further into the top half of the table. Wolves (Pick, +120).
Liverpool @ Arsenal – Arsenal had their unprecedented 11 game WINNING streak snapped against Crystal Palace last Sunday as they drew 2-2 in a thriller. They sit in 4th only 4 points off of leaders City and second place Liverpool and are looking like one of the tougher teams to beat in England right now. They go against a Liverpool side who are way too overvalued in this match as away favorites. Liverpool’s last three away matches have resulted in a 1-1-1 record and all three were somewhat unimpressive affairs. I love Arsenal as home underdogs in this one. Arsenal (+0.5, -110).
French Ligue 1
Monaco @ Stade de Reims – I will keep betting against Monaco until they figure it out. Since Thierry Henry took over they have had two draws and no losses, but are traveling to a Reims team who sit in 9th and have only lost one of their 5 home matches with 3 draws proving that they are really tough to beat. Monaco meanwhile are winless in their 6 away matches and are still in the process of their turnaround. This is a great opportunity to jump on a home team with a vulnerable pickem line. Reims (Pick -120).
Spanish La Liga
Real Valladolid @ Real Madrid – Madrid bounced back after their El Clasico nightmare (where they lost 5-1) with a win in the Copa Del Rey on Wednesday against Meililla, a third division side. They have yet to win in the league since 9/22, have yet to win in the league by more than two goals since 9/1 and Valladolid are currently on a 7 match unbeaten run. I can’t trust Madrid to cover by more than 2 and I won’t pick them until they can string a few results together. Take the points. Real Valladolid (+2, +110).
Sevilla @ Real Sociedad – Sevilla currently sit in 3rd place in La Liga and have only 1 loss in their last 8 domestic matches. They’re scoring goals at an exceptional rate with 22 on the year which is second in the league. Sociedad meanwhile only have 1 win in their last 6 matches and they have yet to win a match at home all season long. Somehow this sits a pickem line and I can’t resist taking Sevilla. Sevilla (Pick, -125).
Italian Serie A
Cagliari @ Juventus – Juve are still the best team in the world right now as their only blemish this season was a fluke home draw to Genoa. Outside of that, they have won every single match and are looking outstanding. They go against a very average Cagliari team and only 1 of their 5 matches at home this year have been won by less than two goals. Juventus (-2, -110).
MLS Cup Playoffs Leg 1
New York Red Bulls @ Columbus Crew – Columbus have shown themselves to be an underdog that you don’t want to count out. They’ve now had back to back years with shootout wins in away matches in the playoffs where they were underdogs. After their franchise was saved from moving to Austin, I would be hesitant about doubting the spirit of this team. I love them on the pickem line in Leg 1 at home here against the Red Bulls. Crew Pickem (-120).
Atlanta United @ NYCFC – In only their second year in the league, Atlanta has now had back to back playoff appearances and almost set the points record for a season this year. They have arguably the two best players in the league right now and they scored a league-high 70 goals this season. Both clubs have been averaging an over of 3 total goals in the matches they’ve played in (NYCFC 3.0 and Atlanta 3.3) so I like the over here. NYCFC play in Yankee stadium, a small and hard place to play which can produce many goals as there are so many turnovers and defensive mistakes. I like the over here even with the likelihood of a push. Over 3 goals (-110).
That’s all I have for this weekend’s matches!! I hope you can find some time to watch them and maybe throw some action as well.
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Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.