Matchweek 9 Betting Preview

Hi folks!! We’ve made it through the dreaded international break and are finally back to club soccer. It will be a weird weekend as many of the nations were traveling around the world and we may see a few stars resting this weekend before the Champions League slate begins again on Tuesday.

I’m going to try a new strategy this week as instead of picking all of the matches in the Premier League, I’m going to try to pick out some lines around the Top 5 European leagues that I think can be exploited along with my favorite Premier League matches.

Let’s get it started!

This Season’s Record: 53-43-10 (+6.1 Units)
Matchweek 8 Record: 4-4-2 (+0.2 Units)

English Premier League
Saturday, October 20th

7:30 am EST

Manchester United @ Chelsea – Jose Mourinho may be sitting this one out as he could be serving a touchline ban after his remarks postgame a few weeks ago. Regardless this isn’t a matchup that United will look forward to as they will go up against Sarri’s Chelsea. Chelsea’s hot, they’re tied at the top of the table and Sarri’s style should run rampant over this United side who tends to allow pressure in their own half where Hazard will be salivating. To add to that, United play on Tuesday against Juventus in a must-win Champions League match while Chelsea will wait until Thursday. I like Chelsea to get the win here. Chelsea (-0.5, -125).

10:00 am EST

Southampton @ Bournemouth – If you’ve been reading my blog this season then you know I love to pick Bournemouth, especially at home. It’s worked as they sit in 6th right now, have won 2 straight league matches and have yet to lose at home this season in all competitions. Southampton meanwhile are averaging .75 points per game away from home and have conceded at least 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches. I like the Cherries at home. Bournemouth (-0.5, +105).

Watford @ Wolves – I’ve been riding Wolves all season and they have not really let me down. They are one of 4 teams that have 1 or fewer losses in the league and will be home to a Watford side who are winless in their last 5 in all competitions. Yes, things change after the international break but I don’t see Wolves slipping up here at home. Wolves (-0.5, -125).

Burnley @ Manchester City – This one may surprise some people but I don’t like City to cover in this one. They have had the majority of their players on the international break while Burnley have not, a spread of (-3) is so much in this league and against a side who have not conceded more than 2 goals in their last 7 matches. Joe Hart also comes home to City in net and he will be out for revenge after somewhat of a bitter end to his tenure in the sky blue. I think City will win convincingly, but I think heavy legs and a new rotation will limit the damage at the Etihad this weekend. Burnley (+3, -110) AND Under 4 goals (-120).

French Ligue 1
Saturday, October 20th
2:00 pm EST

Monaco @ Strasbourg – For some reason the bookmakers are still trusting Monaco to turn things around. Yes, they just hired Thierry Henry to try to turn things around and this will be his opener, but their problems extend further than the manager. They currently sit in 18th with a 1-3-5 record and have not won since their first match of the season. Meanwhile Strasbourg sit in 9th place with a 3-3-3 record and an above average home record. I want to keep fading Monaco until they show us they can get a result. Strasbourg (Pick, -110).

German Bundesliga
Saturday, October 20th
9:30 am EST

Borussia Dortmund @ Stuttgart – Wow this line seems almost too good to be true. In a matchup where first place takes on last place, Dortmund are only receiving (-0.5) on this one with not too much juice. Dortmund aren’t just in first, they’ve won their last 4 matches by a combined score of 15-5 and have yet to lose this season. Yes, Stuttgart are better than their record and results have shown but I can’t fade this Dortmund team yet. Borussia Dortmund (-0.5, -120).

Spanish La Liga
Saturday, October 20th
2:45 pm EST

Sevilla @ FC Barcelona – A battle for first place will take place in Barcelona as Sevilla hold a one point lead over opponents Barcelona. I think this one will be a tight affair as legs may be heavy since the international break and there is so much on the line. The spread sits at (1.5) but I am going to stay away from it due to the contrasting forms and what’s at stake. It could very well be a one-goal match and I don’t want to fade Barcelona, which doesn’t help when choosing the spread. Therefore I’m going to take the under. Barcelona have only had a total go above 4 once this season and this will be a ‘do not concede’ type of match for both teams. I like the under with such a high total. Under 4 (-120).

Only eight picks from seven matches but I truly think each one has the ability to be exploited as the bookmakers seem a bit exposed after the international break. Good luck to everyone!!

Don’t forget to follow on Twitter and on Facebook!

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Facebook: Can I Kick It 

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Nico

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